Politics
Reuters/Ipsos finds Trump approval at 31% as midterms approach
The October 16–19 survey also gives Democrats a national congressional preference lead among registered voters. The figures measure different groups.
What to know
- The approval result covers all 1,679 adults in the survey; the congressional figures use its 1,279 registered voters.
- Ipsos gives sampling-error margins of 2.4 percentage points for adults and 2.8 points for registered voters, at 95% confidence.
- A national preference poll does not determine individual races or the eventual balance of Congress.
President Donald Trump’s job approval stands at 31% in a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted October 16–19, while 66% disapprove. Among registered voters, 47% choose a Democratic congressional candidate and 35% a Republican when asked how they would vote if the election were held now.
What the new numbers show
Reuters describes the 31% approval figure as the lowest in its polling across Trump’s two terms, one percentage point below the reading two weeks earlier. That one-point difference should not be treated as precise evidence of a sudden shift: it is smaller than the new poll’s sampling-error margin.
The congressional question produces a 12-point Democratic lead among registered voters. It asks about party preference in respondents’ districts, rather than presenting the candidates and conditions of every local race. The headline numbers are registered-voter results, not a likely-voter estimate.
How to read the methodology
Ipsos used its probability-based KnowledgePanel and conducted the study in English. The results were weighted, including for demographic characteristics, 2024 vote choice and party identification. Sampling error is one source of uncertainty; wording, turnout and who responds can also matter.
What comes next
The November 3 election will be decided through actual votes in individual contests. These findings show the political environment during four October days. They cannot turn a national percentage-point lead into a guaranteed number of House or Senate seats.
Sources, credits & editorial notes
- Ipsos original survey and methodology, October 19
- Reuters/Ipsos original topline, October 16–19 fieldwork, pages 1–5
- Jason Lange, Reuters, October 19, via AOL
- Photograph source and reuse rights
- Photograph license
Sources and photo credit
- Ipsos original survey and methodology, October 19 - Reuters/Ipsos original topline, October 16–19 fieldwork, pages 1–5 - Jason Lange, Reuters, October 19, via AOL - Photograph source and reuse rights - Photograph license
Archive view of the White House in April 2007; illustrative, not poll respondents or a current event. Photo: Gregory Varnum / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0. Any future photo adaptation must retain the same or a compatible share-alike license and identify edits.
Photograph adaptation notes
Archive view of the White House in April 2007; illustrative, not poll respondents or a current event. Photo: Gregory Varnum / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0. Website image resized/compressed with responsive display cropping. Social cards add crop, contrast, NewsCubby branding and translated headlines. The photograph and photo adaptations retain CC BY-SA 3.0; no additional restrictions are imposed. Original photograph and rights record; license.
