Midterms 2026: Where the House and Senate stand 8 days out

What does the House forecast say?

CBS News' latest estimate, which is built on a YouGov survey, found Democrats "on pace for 229 seats" against 206 for Republicans. The estimate was written by Anthony Salvanto, Jennifer De Pinto and Fred Backus and updated Sunday. It puts the possible range at 215 to 237 Democratic seats, and CBS said Republicans "still have a very narrow path to hold the majority."

CBS described the Democratic lead as "durable," but said "there isn't a growing wave." The network called it an "avoidance" election, "with many on each side more motivated by trying to prevent or stop things than by what they'll gain." More than 7 in 10 people voting for Democrats said their vote for Congress was to oppose President Donald Trump, CBS found, while Trump is "motivating for most Republicans, especially MAGA." CBS also found that voters who remain undecided "profile as more Republican," a sign the GOP still has room to gain. On "Face the Nation" on Sunday, Salvanto said "turnout is a big factor." The survey interviewed 2,355 adults from Oct. 21 to 23, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 points for the full sample (±3.0 for likely voters).

The Cook Political Report's Oct. 23 House ratings list 17 toss-ups, 12 held by Republicans and five by Democrats. Cook rates 220 seats as at least leaning Democratic and 198 as at least leaning Republican. The toss-ups include California's 22nd (Rep. David Valadao), New York's 17th (Rep. Mike Lawler) and Ohio's 9th (Rep. Marcy Kaptur).

Where do Republicans see trouble in the House?

CNN reported Friday that House Speaker Mike Johnson asked Trump for more money for House races, and that Trump's political operation then put nearly $30 million into dozens of contests. According to CNN, GOP groups have moved money away from offensive targets to protect incumbents in places like Arizona, Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin. One Republican operative told CNN the party has shifted into a defensive posture.

CNN also reported that some Democrats are privately discussing a majority of 230 seats or more. Johnson's team told CNN the speaker "fervently believes Republicans can and will hold the House majority." On "Fox News Sunday," Johnson said polls showing his party behind "are wrong" because they under-sample Republicans.

What does the Senate map look like?

Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, according to Fox News. Cook's Oct. 20 ratings list seven toss-ups. Six are held by Republicans: Alaska (Sen. Dan Sullivan), Iowa (open), Kansas (Sen. Roger Marshall), Maine (Sen. Susan Collins), Ohio (Sen. Jon Husted) and Texas (open). One is held by Democrats: Michigan, where Sen. Gary Peters is retiring.

Cook rates Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is running for reelection, and the open North Carolina seat as "likely Democratic." Minnesota and New Hampshire are "lean Democratic," and South Carolina is "lean Republican."

On NBC's "Meet the Press," NBC News data analyst Steve Kornacki said Maine is the only state on Democrats' target list that Trump didn't carry in 2024. Even if Democrats flip North Carolina and Maine, he said, they would still need wins in states like Alaska, Iowa or Texas, which Trump carried by double digits. Kornacki cited Trump approval ratings of 44% in Iowa and 42% in Ohio as signs of "some softness."

In Georgia, an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll conducted by the University of Georgia's School of Public and International Affairs (1,000 likely voters, Oct. 7–15, margin of error ±3.1 points) found Ossoff at nearly 48% and Republican Rep. Mike Collins at 40%, with nearly 12% undecided, FOX 5 Atlanta reported. Collins spokesperson Meyer Siegfried said in a statement that "the only poll that counts is happening right now with early voting at the ballot box."

Alaska's race also faces a legal fight. The Justice Department has sued to block certification if Sullivan loses, citing possible confusion with another candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan, Fox News and NBC reported. Alaska courts have already declined to remove the second Sullivan from the ballot, according to Fox. Peltola's campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee have filed a motion asking a federal judge to dismiss the Justice Department's case, NBC reported. Attorney General Todd Blanche defended the suit as a necessary step to avoid confusing voters, and Trump said he told his administration to file it, the Associated Press reported early Monday. No ruling had been reported as of early Monday.

Separately, Fox reported that Democratic nominee Mary Peltola and members of her family were treated for minor injuries after a car crash in Anchorage on Saturday night. Anchorage police confirmed a three-vehicle crash with non-life-threatening injuries and said it was under investigation, NBC reported. Her campaign said she was "in good spirits" and would reschedule events in Fairbanks and Bethel for later in the week, according to NBC.

What do the national polls show?

A Fox News poll of 1,202 registered voters, conducted Oct. 9 to 12, found 54% backing the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district and 45% backing the Republican. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.5 points. The same poll put Trump's job approval at 36%, which Fox listed as a second-term low.

An NBC News Decision Desk poll powered by SurveyMonkey, published Oct. 18, found registered voters preferred Democratic control of Congress 55% to 45%. NBC reported that 71% of adults said the country is on the "wrong track." The online poll surveyed 19,135 adults from Sept. 28 to Oct. 12.

What are prediction markets showing?

On Polymarket, contracts on Democratic control of the House traded at 92 cents on the dollar as of about 7 a.m. ET Monday. That's an implied 92% chance, on about $23.5 million in volume. Contracts on Democratic control of the Senate traded at 65%, on more than $9.2 million in volume. Both prices were essentially unchanged from Sunday evening. Market prices reflect traders' bets and can move quickly. They aren't polls or official forecasts.

What are Republicans saying in the final stretch?

Republican leaders focused on turnout. "At the end of the day, this is going to be about turnout," House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told Fox News on Sunday. "If people show up and vote on our side, we will win." Johnson framed the contest as a choice in which his party represents "common sense."

Trump told reporters Sunday, "I hear that we've turned the whole thing around," Fox reported. At a Georgia rally Saturday, he predicted that Democratic control would lead to a severe economic downturn, Fox reported.

Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall told Fox that many Kansans vote only when Trump is on the ballot, and argued that Trump is effectively on the ballot this year. In Ohio, Husted told a Saturday rally that his race "likely is going to determine who keeps the majority in the Senate," Fox reported.

What are Democrats saying in the final stretch?

Democrats focused on costs. "The main issue facing Americans is that their cost of living has gone up so dramatically," Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., said on "Meet the Press." He said that if Democrats win, their first priority should be lowering "the cost of food and medicine and rent." Schiff also said polls show Democrats "narrowly ahead in enough states" to flip the Senate, adding, "we're all distrustful of polling."

At a Brooklyn press conference earlier this month, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said, "We're fighting for an affordable America." He promised to oppose the tariffs and to push to restore the expired Affordable Care Act tax credits.

Former President Barack Obama, campaigning in Michigan, urged voters to change course and hold the government accountable, according to Fox News. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer told NBC that "the cost of living" is "precisely why it's important that we support the Democratic ticket."

What we know

- CBS News/YouGov estimates Democrats at 229 House seats, with a range that still includes a Republican majority. - Cook lists 17 House toss-ups and seven Senate toss-ups, six of them Republican-held. - Recent Fox and NBC polls show Democrats leading the generic ballot by 9 to 10 points among registered voters. - Both parties say turnout will decide the closest races.

What we don't know yet

- Whether undecided voters, who CBS says lean Republican, break late toward the GOP. - How a federal judge will rule on the Justice Department's Alaska lawsuit and Democrats' motion to dismiss it. - Whether late spending shifts by both parties change the House map.

What happens next

Early voting continues in many states this week, and Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Rules differ by state.

*Credits: reporting from CBS News, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Fox News, NBC News, CNN, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution (poll) via FOX 5 Atlanta, the Office of the House Democratic Leader, The Associated Press and Polymarket. NewsCubby articles are produced with AI assistance and reviewed by humans.*