Texas Senate race: Why Bush family members are backing Talarico

What happened in the Texas Senate race this week?

Two members of one of the best-known Republican families in Texas have broken with their party's nominee in the state's U.S. Senate race.

Neil Bush, a son of the late President George H.W. Bush and a younger brother of President George W. Bush, said in a Facebook post on Tuesday, Oct. 20, that he had cast an early ballot for Democrat James Talarico, according to CBS News and The Guardian. Talarico, a state representative, is running against Republican Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general.

A second family member has also put money behind Talarico. Barbara Bush, a daughter of George W. Bush, gave $2,500 on Sept. 23 to Lone Star Rising PAC, a super PAC that supports Talarico, according to Fox News Digital, which cited federal campaign finance records it reviewed in an Oct. 24 report. The BBC, which also reported the contribution, said it had asked her for comment. NewsCubby did not find a public statement from Barbara Bush about the donation in the reports it reviewed.

Fox News said it contacted the White House, representatives for Neil Bush and the Paxton campaign for comment. The reports NewsCubby reviewed did not include a response from the Paxton campaign to either move.

Why did Neil Bush say he voted for Talarico?

Neil Bush, who is 71 according to The Guardian, framed his vote as a judgment about character rather than party. "Character matters more than party affiliation," he wrote, as quoted by CBS News.

He also said his vote reflected deep concern about Paxton's record and admiration for what he described as Talarico's character and principles, CBS News reported. The Guardian reported that Neil Bush pointed in particular to Paxton's 2020 effort to challenge the results of the presidential election.

Neil Bush is not a candidate or an elected official, and his post is one voter's choice. But the Bush name has been part of Texas politics for decades, which is why the post drew national coverage from CBS News, the BBC, The Guardian and Fox News.

Why does a Bush family split matter in Texas?

The family's history with Paxton is personal as well as political. George P. Bush, a nephew of Neil Bush and a former Texas land commissioner, lost to Paxton in the 2022 Republican primary for attorney general, CBS News and The Guardian noted. The Guardian described George P. Bush as a supporter of President Donald Trump.

The BBC noted that critics could frame the family's moves as payback for that defeat.

The split also fits a longer pattern. George H.W. Bush voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, the BBC and The Guardian recalled.

Paxton, for his part, is the Trump-backed nominee. He defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary after Trump endorsed him, and Trump has campaigned in Texas on his behalf, CBS News reported.

Talarico would make history if he wins. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, according to CBS News. Talarico is also a seminarian, CBS News noted.

What do the polls say about Talarico vs. Paxton?

Public polling shows a very close race. NewsCubby does not average polls or call races; below are the two most recent independent surveys with their full methods.

**Fox News Poll.** The poll was conducted Oct. 15-19, 2026, under the direction of Beacon Research, a Democratic firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican firm, and released Oct. 21. Among 1,398 likely voters, Talarico and Paxton were tied at 49% each. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Among 2,011 registered voters, Talarico led 52% to 46%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points. In Fox News' September survey, Talarico had 51% to Paxton's 49% among likely voters.

**University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs.** The survey was fielded Oct. 10-14 among 2,000 likely voters and released Oct. 19. It found Talarico at 48%, Paxton at 46%, Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% and 3% unsure. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.19 percentage points. The same poll found that 54% of Texas voters view Trump unfavorably, according to the university.

In both polls, the gap between the two candidates is within the margin of error, so neither survey shows a clear leader. CBS News' Battleground Tracker rates the race a toss-up. The University of Texas' Texas Politics Project keeps a running list of other public polls of the race.

How many Texans have voted early so far?

Early voting began Monday, Oct. 19, and runs through Friday, Oct. 30. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

More than 2 million Texans voted in the first four days of early voting, through Thursday, Oct. 22, Spectrum News reported. The largest counties posted big numbers. Through Thursday, more than 384,000 people had voted in person in Harris County, more than 248,000 in Dallas County, nearly 177,000 in Bexar County and more than 158,000 in Travis County, according to Spectrum News. Harris County drew more than 104,000 voters on the first day alone, a first-day record for a midterm there, Spectrum News reported.

The Texas Tribune reported record first-day turnout in Harris, Dallas, Montgomery, Ellis, Bell and McLennan counties. Turnout figures show how many people voted, not whom they voted for, and Texas does not register voters by party.

The statewide figure on the Texas secretary of state's website can lag behind county reports. A spokeswoman for the secretary of state's office, Alicia Pierce, told the Houston Chronicle that counties are responsible for uploading their data, which is supposed to be entered by 10 a.m. the following day.

Statewide, 3,704,955 Texans had voted through Friday, Oct. 23, including 3,522,948 in person and 182,007 by mail, or 19.53% of 18,967,039 registered voters, according to Texas secretary of state data compiled by Transparency USA. The compilation, updated Saturday afternoon, included 243 of the state's 254 counties.

What is Ken Paxton's legal history?

Paxton's legal record has been a central theme of the race, and it is often summarized loosely. Here is how The Associated Press and CBS News have described it.

Paxton was indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015. That case ended in March 2024, when he agreed to a pretrial deal that required him to pay nearly $300,000 in restitution, according to AP. CBS News describes the outcome as a settlement reached through a diversion agreement. He did not plead guilty under the deal.

In 2023, the Republican-controlled Texas House impeached Paxton on separate accusations of bribery and abuse of office, CBS News reported. The Texas Senate acquitted him on all 16 articles in September 2023, according to AP.

The impeachment grew out of a 2020 report to the FBI by eight of Paxton's own senior aides, AP reported. In the final weeks of the Biden administration, the Justice Department decided not to bring federal charges against Paxton, AP reported, citing two people familiar with the decision.

Paxton has never been convicted, AP has noted, and he has denied wrongdoing. He has called the impeachment a "politically motivated sham," according to AP.

What happens next?

Several things will shape the final stretch:

- **Early-vote totals.** Counties will keep reporting daily through Oct. 30. Large urban and suburban counties are being watched closely by both campaigns. - **New polls.** Additional public surveys are likely before Nov. 3. NewsCubby will report each one with its pollster, dates, sample and margin of error. - **Other endorsements.** Whether other prominent Republicans follow Neil Bush, or rally behind Paxton, could affect the race's final message. NewsCubby will report only statements that are made on the record. - **Trump's role.** Trump has backed Paxton since the primary, and any further visits to Texas would be part of the closing push.

For background on the voter registration backlog some Texas counties faced before early voting, see NewsCubby's earlier briefing on Texas voter address updates. For how early voting is going in other states, read our weekend early-voting guide.

*Reporting draws on Fox News, CBS News, the BBC, The Guardian, The Associated Press, the University of Houston, Spectrum News, the Houston Chronicle and The Texas Tribune.*