Virginia Senate: Warner wins, and what it means for Senate control

The Associated Press declared Democratic Sen. Mark Warner the winner of Virginia’s U.S. Senate race at 7 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, Nov. 3, the moment the state’s polls closed. It was AP’s first Senate race call of the 2026 midterm elections. Warner defeated Republican Bert Mizusawa, a retired U.S. Army major general, and will serve a fourth six-year term. Since then, AP has called more Senate races, including North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper flipped a Republican-held seat. Follow AP’s live results for the latest calls.

The result keeps a Democratic seat in Democratic hands. As AP noted in its report on the race, that hold does not change the balance of power in the Senate. To understand why a win can matter without moving the count, it helps to start with the math Democrats face tonight, then look at how AP decides when a race is over, and finally at the contests that are expected to decide which party controls the chamber in January.

This explainer builds on NewsCubby’s Election Day overview and our guide to poll closing times. Vote totals on election night are unofficial, and states certify results later.

What to know

• AP declared Warner the winner in Virginia at 7 p.m. Eastern. It was AP’s first Senate call of the night.
• Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47. The 47 includes two independents who caucus with Democrats.
• AP reported that Democrats must flip four Senate seats and three House seats to take control of Congress.
• Virginia was already a Democratic seat, so Warner’s win keeps Democrats at the same starting point.
• AP declares a winner only when it determines that the trailing candidates have no path to victory.
• Contests in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, along with North Carolina, are among the races that could decide Senate control.

Who is Mark Warner?

Warner, a Democrat, was Virginia’s governor from 2002 to 2006. He was first elected to the Senate in 2008 and took office in January 2009. He is vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, the panel that oversees the nation’s spy agencies. His fourth term would run through early 2033.

His Republican opponent, Mizusawa, is a retired Army major general. Virginia elects its senators statewide, and this year’s race was for the seat Warner has held since 2009.

Why did AP call Virginia so early?

AP made its call when Virginia’s polls closed at 7 p.m., with less than 1% of the vote counted, according to AP’s report. That can look surprising. It is not a guess, and it is not a projection.

AP says it declares a winner only when it has determined that the trailing candidates have no path to victory. To reach that point, its race-calling team, which includes analysts in every state, looks at several kinds of evidence at once:

• the vote counted so far, county by county;
• how many ballots remain to be counted, and where they are;
• results from past elections in the same places;
• AP VoteCast, a large survey of voters that AP conducts during the election.

AP says survey data alone is never enough to declare a winner. When the votes counted, the ballots outstanding, the history of the state and the survey all point in the same direction by a wide margin, AP can declare a winner as soon as the polls close. That is what happened in Virginia.

AP also does not call a race because a candidate concedes. A concession is a political act; AP’s decision rests on the vote. In the other direction, AP does not wait for a concession before calling a race when the numbers are clear.

What’s the difference between “too early” and “too close”?

Viewers will see two phrases tonight that sound similar but mean different things.

“Too early to call” means that votes are still being counted and there is not yet enough information to determine a winner. Many races that will be decided by comfortable margins spend hours in that category simply because ballots take time to count.

“Too close to call” means that the counting is largely finished, or far enough along, and the margin is so narrow that AP cannot say who won. In very tight races, AP may hold off when the margin is less than about half a percentage point, especially where a recount is possible.

AP has a long record. PBS NewsHour reported that AP made three mistakes in more than 11,000 race calls in primaries. That record is one reason news organizations, including NewsCubby, use AP’s race calls rather than declaring winners themselves. NewsCubby does not call races.

Why a hold matters but doesn’t move the count

Before Election Day, Republicans held 53 seats and Democrats held 47, counting two independents who caucus with Democrats. Thirty-five Senate seats are on the ballot this year, including special elections in Ohio and Florida.

Democrats need 51 seats for a majority. A 50-50 Senate is not enough for them, because Vice President JD Vance, a Republican, casts the tie-breaking vote. So Democrats need a net gain of four seats.

That is why Virginia is important in a different way than it might first appear. Keeping the seat does not add a single seat to the Democratic column. It keeps Democrats from falling further behind. Every seat Democrats already hold and then lose would add one more flip to their target. If they lost one of their own seats, they would need to win five Republican-held seats to get to 51.

That makes tonight a two-part test for Democrats: hold what they have, and win four seats now held by Republicans. For Republicans, the test is the reverse. They can lose up to three seats, net, and still keep the majority.

Which races decide Senate control?

The contests below are among those that AP, NPR and other election analysts are watching. Times are Eastern, and they mark when the last polls close in each state. Results usually begin appearing shortly after polls close, but counting can take hours or, in some states, days.

**Ohio — polls closed at 7:30 p.m.**

Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed in 2025 to fill the seat JD Vance left to become vice president, faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in a special election. This is a Republican-held seat that Democrats are trying to win.

**North Carolina — polls closed at 7:30 p.m.**

Democrat Roy Cooper, a former governor, faces Republican Michael Whatley for an open Republican-held seat. The state election board extended hours at a few precincts, so the board’s statewide results were expected after the last of those closed at 8:15 p.m. AP later declared Cooper the winner, a Democratic gain.

**Maine — polls closed at 8 p.m.**

Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking another term against Democrat Troy Jackson. Collins has long been one of the Democrats’ top targets because Maine often votes for Democrats in presidential elections.

**Michigan — most polls closed at 8 p.m.; the last close at 9 p.m.**

This is an open seat now held by Democrats. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman. Because it is a Democratic seat, a Republican win here would raise the number of flips Democrats need elsewhere.

**Texas — most polls closed at 8 p.m.; the last close at 9 p.m.**

Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, faces Democrat James Talarico and Libertarian Ted Brown for a Republican-held seat. The last polls close in the far western part of the state, which runs on Mountain time.

**Kansas — most polls closed at 8 p.m.; the last close at 9 p.m.**

Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton.

**Iowa — polls close at 9 p.m.**

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek for the open seat held by Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, who did not seek reelection.

**Alaska — the last polls close at 1 a.m. Wednesday**

Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting in general elections. If no candidate wins more than half of the first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those ballots move to their voters’ next choice, round by round, until someone has a majority. That process can take days. This year’s ballot also lists a second candidate named Daniel Sullivan, which election officials and voters have noted.

**Other seats to watch**

Democrats are also defending seats in New Hampshire, where Democrat Chris Pappas faces Republican John Sununu for an open seat, and in Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is seeking a second term. Georgia’s polls closed at 7 p.m.

What about the House?

AP reported that Democrats must flip three House seats to win the majority. All 435 House seats are on the ballot. Many House races will take longer to call than statewide Senate contests because districts can be closely divided and because some states, such as California, count mail ballots for days after the election.

What to watch for the rest of the night

The next few hours will show whether Democrats can open a path to four net gains. A good way to follow along is to keep three questions in mind for each race:

1. Has AP called it? Only a call from AP means the race is decided, by AP’s standard. Early leads are not results.
2. Which ballots have been counted? Some states report early and mail votes first, and others report Election Day votes first. That can make early leads swing.
3. Is the seat a hold or a flip? A hold keeps the count where it started. A flip changes it by one seat.

Each Democratic flip would cut Republicans’ margin, and each Republican flip would raise the bar for Democrats. Virginia did neither, but it was the first answer of the night to the first question Democrats had to settle: keep the seats they already have.

NewsCubby will update this story as AP declares winners in the races that decide control. For any total you see, check the time stamp and the source, and compare it with the state’s official results page.

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*Photo: Sen. Mark Warner, official portrait. Ryan Donnell / U.S. Senate / Wikimedia Commons / public domain.*

*NewsCubby articles are produced with AI assistance and reviewed by humans.*