New York governor election: Hochul and Blakeman face Tuesday's vote

Gov. Kathy Hochul heads into Election Day with a double-digit lead in the most recent independent poll of New York's race for governor, while Republican Bruce Blakeman spends Monday flying across the state in a final bid to close the gap before polls open Tuesday, November 3.

A Siena poll released Oct. 28 found Hochul ahead of Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, 54% to 40% among likely voters, up from 50% to 41% in September. Blakeman dismisses the public surveys and says Republican turnout on Election Day will decide the race.

What do the polls show?

Siena's October survey gave Hochul her best standing of the campaign. For the first time, a majority of voters, 51% to 45%, viewed her favorably, and her job approval rose to 51%. Voters expected her to win by 68% to 23%, a view shared by 40% of Republicans.

The poll also pointed to where the race will be decided. Blakeman and Hochul ran nearly even upstate and in the downstate suburbs, while Hochul led by 44 points in New York City and by 11 points among independents. Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said a Republican needs to win upstate and the suburbs convincingly to offset the city.

What else did the Siena poll find?

Affordability is the campaign's central issue, and voters are skeptical of both candidates on it. Thirty percent of likely voters said Hochul would make life more affordable if elected, 27% said the same of Blakeman, and a 35% plurality, including 45% of independents, said neither would.

Immigration enforcement remains a weak spot for Blakeman's message. Sixty percent of voters said they oppose the way ICE is operating, and 62% said its tactics have gone too far. Trump's favorability rating among New York likely voters was 36% to 61%. Democrats led the generic congressional ballot 54% to 39%, up from 51% to 40% in September.

Hochul led among women by 23 points and among men by six, according to Greenberg. White voters were closely divided, while Hochul led among Latino voters by better than two to one and among Black voters 81% to 16%.

Blakeman's own image is evenly split, at 39% favorable and 40% unfavorable, as more voters have gotten to know him during the campaign.

Blakeman told supporters Sunday that he had seen two statewide polls showing him within four points, the New York Post reported. He did not identify those polls.

How are the candidates closing?

Hochul spent Sunday in Democratic strongholds in New York City, appearing at an Upper West Side diner, with City Council Speaker Julie Menin and later with Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in Astoria, Queens, ABC7 reported. She emphasized housing costs and public-safety spending. "I have the ball in my hand, running toward the end zone, but we're not there yet," she said.

Blakeman opened a 48-hour tour of about eight cities in Northport on Long Island, then flew to Oswego, Albany and Rensselaer County. On Monday he plans stops in Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Binghamton before a final event in Manhattan. "This is a turnout election," he said.

He has centered his closing argument on taxes, energy costs and immigration. Blakeman says Hochul and Mamdani have a "pact" to raise taxes, a claim Hochul rejects, and he has promised an executive order on Jan. 1 ending what he calls New York's sanctuary-state status.

What's at stake?

The winner will shape New York's response to federal immigration enforcement, a central dispute in the campaign's lone debate on Oct. 13. Hochul has framed the race as a check on what she calls "Trump-style" leadership. Blakeman is running as an ally of President Donald Trump who would cooperate more closely with Immigration and Customs Enforcement, as he has in Nassau County.

Unofficial early-voting data showed registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans statewide, including on Long Island, the Post reported. Republicans are more likely to vote on Election Day, which is why Blakeman's campaign is focused on Tuesday turnout.

How did early voting go?

New Yorkers cast 1,705,698 ballots during the nine-day early-voting period, according to unofficial State Board of Elections totals reported by WRGB. More than 1.1 million of those votes came from outside New York City.

In the city, the Board of Elections reported 690,526 unofficial early-voting check-ins through the close of polls Sunday: 219,536 in Brooklyn, 188,434 in Manhattan, 162,914 in Queens, 67,630 in the Bronx and 52,012 on Staten Island.

Long Island, where Blakeman needs a strong showing, also saw heavy turnout. Nassau County officials reported more than 175,000 early voters, and Suffolk County more than 157,000 as of Saturday night, News 12 reported.

How did we get here?

Hochul became governor in August 2021 after Andrew Cuomo resigned and won a full term in 2022, defeating Republican Lee Zeldin by about 6 percentage points. A double-digit win on Tuesday would mark a clear improvement on that result.

Blakeman has been Nassau County executive since 2022. Rep. Elise Stefanik, an early Republican favorite, suspended her campaign for governor and said she would not seek reelection to Congress, saying she wanted to avoid a divisive primary, the Associated Press reported. The next day, President Donald Trump endorsed Blakeman, calling him "MAGA all the way" and giving him his "Complete and Total Endorsement."

The two candidates met in their only debate on Oct. 13, where immigration enforcement was a central point of conflict.

Who else is on the ballot?

New Yorkers will also choose a lieutenant governor, attorney general and comptroller. Lieutenant governor candidates run jointly with the governor candidates: Democrat Adrienne Adams, the former New York City Council speaker, with Hochul, and Republican Todd Hood with Blakeman.

Attorney General Letitia James, a Democrat, faces Republican Saritha Komatireddy, and Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, a Democrat, faces Republican Joseph Hernandez. Siena's October poll found both incumbents well ahead: James led 54% to 39%, and DiNapoli led 59% to 32%. Greenberg noted that DiNapoli received more votes than any other New York candidate in 2014, 2018 and 2022.

All 26 of New York's U.S. House seats are on the ballot. The most closely watched is the Hudson Valley's 17th District, where Republican Rep. Mike Lawler faces Democrat Cait Conley, a former National Security Council counterterrorism director. City & State reported that Lawler had raised $10 million and Conley $9.7 million. The district is one of the most competitive in the country in the fight for House control.

What to watch Tuesday night

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern. Watch the downstate suburbs and upstate cities such as Buffalo and Rochester, where Blakeman would need clear margins. Strong Hochul numbers in Nassau, Blakeman's home county, would signal a long night for Republicans. New York City voters will also decide five ballot questions.

What's next

New Yorkers vote Tuesday from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. Find your polling place through the state Board of Elections. NewsCubby's early-voting guide covers how New York's early vote began, our election-eve guide lists Senate races and poll closing times across the country, and our look at voter priorities explains why costs top the list. For the latest polls across the country, visit PollCubby.

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*ARCHIVE PHOTO: The New York State Capitol in Albany in 2019. Photo: Beyond My Ken / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 4.0.*

*NewsCubby articles are produced with AI assistance and reviewed by humans.*