Senate Map One Week Out: Maine's Collins-Jackson Race Leads a Crowded Toss-Up Field

One week before Election Day, the fight for the U.S. Senate runs through a handful of states that both parties consider winnable, and none looks closer than Maine.

> **WHAT TO WATCH TODAY — Tuesday, Oct. 27 (all times ET)** > - **10:00 AM:** The Conference Board releases its October Consumer Confidence Index. September's reading was 81.9. > - **All day:** The Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting. The rate decision comes Wednesday at 2:00 PM, with Chair Jerome Powell's news conference at 2:30 PM. > - **About 3:00 PM:** President Donald Trump is scheduled to speak at the Port of Corpus Christi, Texas, for Senate nominee Ken Paxton. > - **4:00 PM:** Polls close in Israel's general election (10 PM local time), with TV exit polls expected right after. > - **About 7:00 PM:** Trump is scheduled to speak at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center in Lubbock, Texas. > - **8:00 PM:** World Series Game 4, Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays, on FOX. Milwaukee leads the series 3-0.

Where does the Senate map stand?

Republicans hold 53 seats to Democrats' 47, so Democrats need to flip four seats on net to take control. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, in ratings last updated Oct. 20, lists seven races as Toss-ups: Alaska (Sen. Dan Sullivan, R), Iowa (open, R-held), Kansas (Sen. Roger Marshall, R), Maine (Sen. Susan Collins, R), Michigan (open, D-held), Ohio (Sen. Jon Husted, R) and Texas (open, R-held). Cook rates the open North Carolina seat and Sen. Jon Ossoff's Georgia seat Likely Democratic, and Sen. Lindsey Graham's South Carolina seat Lean Republican.

Forecast models lean toward Democrats but disagree on how far. The Silver Bulletin model run by independent forecaster Nate Silver gave Democrats a 76% chance of winning the Senate in its Oct. 26 update. The nonpartisan Decision Desk HQ model, published with The Hill, put Democrats' chances at 57% as of Oct. 23, according to Newsweek. Both models describe several races as close to coin flips, which is why small polling shifts in a few states carry outsized weight.

USA Today reported Monday that the Senate picture has tightened in some Republican-leaning states even as Democrats' generic-ballot lead for the House has grown. Mary Radcliffe, head of research at the polling-average site FiftyPlusOne, told the paper that undecided voters in states such as Iowa, Texas and Kansas who lean Republican may return to the party in the final days. David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, cautioned that polls capture a moment and that any bump from a late Trump visit may fade.

Why is Maine the race to watch?

Collins, seeking a sixth term, is the only Republican senator on the ballot this year in a state Trump lost in 2024, which he did by about 7 points. She won her 2020 race by nearly 9. Her Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, is a former logger from Allagash and a former president of the Maine Senate.

Three recent polls show how close it is: - **Fox News Poll** (conducted by Beacon Research, a Democratic firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican firm; Oct. 16-20; 1,514 likely voters; ±2.5 points): Collins 49%, Jackson 49%. Every interview took place after the candidates' Oct. 15 debate. - **Trafalgar Group** (a Republican-leaning pollster; Oct. 21-23; 1,077 likely voters; ±2.9 points): Collins 47.0%, Jackson 46.5%, with 6.5% undecided. - **Marist Poll** (nonpartisan, Marist College; Oct. 22-25; released Tuesday): Jackson 49%, Collins 47% among likely voters, with a ±6.6-point margin. Among all 1,449 registered voters, Jackson led by 9 points, up from 4 earlier this month. Even so, 58% of likely voters said they expect Collins to win.

The Fox poll points to the forces pulling in each direction. Fifty-three percent of Maine voters said they worry Collins votes with Trump too often, while 46% said they worry Jackson is too liberal. Trump's job approval in the state stood at 37%. Jackson led by 40 points among the roughly one in five voters who had already cast ballots, while Collins led by 12 among those planning to vote on Election Day. Collins' edge with rural voters was 7 points, compared with 18 in 2020.

What are the two campaigns saying?

The Collins campaign has focused on Jackson's temperament. A Collins ad that began running Friday highlights Jackson telling her to "shut up" during their final debate, the Bangor Daily News reported. Collins spokesperson Blake Kernen told the paper that Jackson has shown a pattern of angry outbursts toward women who disagree with him and that it isn't helping him with independents. Collins has also stressed her bipartisan record, campaigning last week with former Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, now an independent, and picking up endorsements from the Maine Fraternal Order of Police and firefighter unions, WGME reported. She has opposed Trump's tariffs on Canada and pressed for exemptions for Maine businesses.

Jackson brushed off the "shut up" ad, telling reporters at a Portland event that he has long fought for women's rights and pointing to his endorsement by the Maine Women's Lobby. He has argued that Collins' tariff exemptions may not survive past Election Day. Sen. Elizabeth Warren campaigned with him Monday in Waterville, after earlier visits from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona is set to join him Tuesday in Freeport, the Bangor Daily News reported.

Outside money has poured in. The Portland Press Herald counted nearly $14 million in Republican-aligned ads accusing Jackson of corruption, many of them from the Senate Leadership Fund, and found that some claims did not hold up. The state ethics commission said no complaints had been filed about Jackson or his family, and the paper found that a bill described in one ad as steering $13.4 million to the Maine Maritime Academy died in the House. A Jackson spokesperson called the ads misleading. The Senate Leadership Fund did not respond to the Press Herald.

What about Ohio and Alaska?

In **Ohio**, Husted, appointed to the seat Vance vacated, faces former Sen. Sherrod Brown in a special election. A Fox News Poll (Beacon/Shaw; Oct. 15-19; 1,592 likely voters; ±2 points) had Brown at 52% and Husted at 47%. A Marist Poll taken Oct. 15-18 found Brown up 48% to 44% among likely voters. Husted has called the race likely to decide the majority, and Thune is heading to Ohio to campaign for him.

In **Alaska**, Sullivan faces former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) while the Justice Department pursues a lawsuit seeking to block certification of the result if Sullivan loses, citing possible voter confusion with a second candidate on the ballot, Daniel J. Sullivan. U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason fast-tracked the case Monday, CNBC reported: the department must respond to motions to intervene by 5 PM Alaska time Tuesday (9 PM ET), and she plans to rule on intervention by late Wednesday. Todd Blanche of the Justice Department wrote on X that the department is not trying to stop any ballot from being counted or the state from certifying. Peltola called the lawsuit corrupt and a desperate effort to hold on to power. Silver Bulletin's polling average had Peltola ahead 48.1% to 44.6% as of Oct. 23, according to Newsweek. NewsCubby explained the two-Sullivans dispute here.

Where do Iowa, Kansas and the Carolinas stand?

**Iowa's** open seat, held by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, pits Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) against state Rep. Josh Turek (D). Marist (Oct. 8-11) had Turek ahead 48% to 45% among likely voters; Emerson College (nonpartisan; Oct. 5-6) had Hinson ahead 47% to 45%; Trafalgar (Republican-leaning) had Hinson at 45.9% and Turek at 44.2%. FiftyPlusOne's average showed Turek's lead shrinking to under a point, USA Today reported.

In **Kansas**, Marshall is defending his seat against Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor. Averages show Hamilton ahead by about a point, though Paleologos told USA Today that some mid- and late-October surveys had Marshall up by one.

In **North Carolina**, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) led former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley 52% to 39% in the Elon University Poll (nonpartisan, conducted with YouGov; Sept. 29-Oct. 8). In **South Carolina**, Cook still rates Graham's seat Lean Republican.

What about Texas and Michigan?

Both get their own NewsCubby coverage today. In **Texas**, the Fox News Poll (Beacon/Shaw; Oct. 15-19) had state Rep. James Talarico (D) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) tied at 49%, and Trump holds two rallies for Paxton today. Read our latest on Texas. In **Michigan**, where Sen. Gary Peters (D) is retiring, a Michigan State University IPPSR survey conducted with YouGov (academic; Oct. 2-19) had Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 48% and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) at 45.5%. See our Michigan coverage.

How is Thune handling the final stretch?

Thune spent Friday in Sioux City, Iowa, with Hinson, saying she must win for Republicans to keep the majority, the Associated Press reported. He has also campaigned in Nebraska, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Mississippi, Kentucky, Florida and Minnesota, and said he would not be offended if a candidate preferred to campaign without him. Some on the right blame him for the failure of the SAVE America Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship to register and photo ID to vote; the House passed it 218-213 on Feb. 11, but it stalled in the Senate. Thune supports the bill but has refused to scrap the filibuster to pass it. Trump has pressed him publicly, writing on Truth Social that Thune should not let the Senate leave town until it passes the SAVE America Act or, better still, ends the filibuster. Thune has warned that a Democratic Senate would mean two years of gridlock, while Iowa Democrats argue he defers too readily to Trump. Senate Republicans are scheduled to choose their leader the week after the election, and no challenger has emerged.

What we know

• Seven Senate races are rated Toss-ups by Cook, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats.
• Maine is within two points in three post-debate polls from pollsters across the spectrum.
• Early voters in Maine and Ohio favor the Democrats in Fox polling, while Election Day voters lean Republican.

What we don't know yet

• How many undecided, Republican-leaning voters in Iowa, Kansas and Texas will come back to the party.
• How Judge Gleason will rule in the Alaska certification case.

What happens next

Trump campaigns in Texas today, Thune heads to Ohio and Kelly joins Jackson in Maine. Polls close Tuesday, Nov. 3. Follow NewsCubby's early-vote tracker and our eight-days-out overview.

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*ARCHIVE PHOTO: Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) in her 2014 official portrait, left, and Troy Jackson, then president of the Maine Senate, in the Maine Senate chamber in 2023. Photos: U.S. Congress / public domain; ArenLeBrun / Wikimedia Commons / CC0.*

*NewsCubby articles are produced with AI assistance and reviewed by humans.*