Texas Senate race a week out: Tight polls, lopsided money as Talarico and Paxton make final push

With eight days until the Nov. 3 election, the race for Texas' open U.S. Senate seat is one of the closest contests in the country. Democrat James Talarico, a state representative from the Austin area who isn't seeking reelection to the Texas House, and Republican Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general, are within the margin of error in most public polls released this month.

The seat is held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who isn't on the November ballot. Paxton beat him in a May 26 Republican primary runoff, about 64% to 36%, after President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton a week before that vote. Talarico won the Democratic nomination outright on March 3, defeating U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett about 52% to 46%, according to certified results.

Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, according to CBS News and The Texas Tribune, and Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points in 2024, Fox News reported.

What the polls show

Most recent surveys put the race within a few points:

• Fox News Poll (Oct. 15-19; Beacon Research, a Democratic firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican firm): Talarico 49%, Paxton 49% among 1,398 likely voters (margin of error plus or minus 2.5 points). Talarico led 51% to 49% in September.
• Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media (Oct. 17-19): Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%, Brown 1%, with 5% undecided among 1,000 likely voters (plus or minus 3.1 points).
• Rasmussen Reports (Oct. 20-21; fieldwork by Pulse Opinion Research): Talarico 45%, Paxton 45%, Brown 5%, with 5% not sure among 965 likely voters (plus or minus 3 points).
• InsiderAdvantage (Oct. 13-14), a firm that poll trackers label Republican-leaning: Paxton 49%, Talarico 48% among 1,200 likely voters (plus or minus 2.83 points). It was the only poll in RealClearPolitics' average showing Paxton ahead.
• Cook Political Report Battleground poll (Oct. 9-13; Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group): Talarico 49%, Paxton 44%, Brown 3% among 934 likely voters (plus or minus 3.2 points).
• University of Houston Hobby School (Oct. 10-14): Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%, Brown 3% among 2,000 likely voters (plus or minus 2.19 points).

RealClearPolitics' average of polls taken Oct. 8-21 showed Talarico at 48.4% and Paxton at 46.9%, a 1.5-point margin. Decision Desk HQ's average on Oct. 23 showed Talarico ahead 48.3% to 45.5%, and as of early Monday afternoon its forecast gave him a 56% chance of winning. Reviews by the American Association for Public Opinion Research found that state polls underestimated support for Trump in 2016 and that 2020 polls overstated Democratic support, including in Senate races.

Fox found Hispanic voters backing Talarico 64% to 34%, a sharp swing from 2024, when its voter analysis found the group favored Trump by 1 point.

Early voting

Texas counties reported 4,394,304 ballots through Sunday, Oct. 25, according to NewsCubby's count of unofficial Texas secretary of state data. That includes 4,192,368 in person and 201,936 by mail, about 23.1% of the state's 19,041,684 registered voters. Many counties don't offer Sunday voting, and counties can revise their totals, so the count may change.

Texas voters don't register by party, so early-vote totals don't show who is ahead. For more on turnout across the battlegrounds, see NewsCubby's early vote tracker.

On the trail this week

Both candidates are on statewide bus tours that end Nov. 2, the eve of Election Day. Paxton's Come and Take It tour, a reference to the Texas Revolution, includes more than 30 stops and ends at the Alamo in San Antonio, The Texas Tribune reported. Over the weekend he campaigned in Georgetown and Laredo.

Talarico's Clear Eyes, Full Hearts tour plans to visit 20 cities and close in Austin. He held a Sunday rally in Laredo, KGNS reported, held a San Antonio rally with actor Eva Longoria, and was scheduled to hold an El Paso event Monday evening.

No debate is scheduled. Fox News agreed in September to host one if both candidates committed, The Washington Post reported. Paxton said last week he would debate under the right conditions, The Washington Times reported. Talarico has kept challenging him to debate.

The closing arguments

Paxton is running on costs and his record as attorney general. At a Saturday stop in Georgetown, he described Talarico as the most extreme Democrat ever to seek statewide office in Texas and argued that Talarico's policies would raise taxes, KSAT reported. His campaign points to his lawsuits against opioid companies, Big Tech and the Biden administration, according to The Texas Tribune. On Oct. 18, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed Paxton, the Washington Examiner reported.

Talarico is centering his message on affordability and corruption, and he regularly accuses Paxton of corruption. In San Antonio on Saturday, he told supporters he keeps meeting Texans who are struggling to get by, and he framed the election as a fight against wealthy donors, a reference to the large sums Elon Musk and others have given to pro-Paxton groups.

Money

Talarico's campaign reported raising $146.3 million for the cycle through Oct. 14, according to its pre-general FEC filing, including $17.6 million from Oct. 1 to Oct. 14. It had $9.9 million in cash on hand. Paxton's campaign reported raising $22.3 million since April 2025, including $2.8 million in early October, and had $4.8 million on hand. Neither reported debt.

Outside money changes the picture. Ad spending in the race has topped $500 million, including about $367 million for pro-Republican ads and about $133 million for pro-Democratic ads, according to AdImpact data reported by Newsweek. Reuters reported, citing AdImpact, that outside groups backing Paxton had spent about $239 million, compared with about $45 million by the largest Democratic-aligned groups. The biggest pro-Paxton group, Texas PAC, launched by the Senate Leadership Fund, had spent nearly $149 million. Federal filings show that Musk gave $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which sent matching amounts to Texas PAC, according to Reuters. The pro-Talarico super PAC Lone Star Rising had spent $19.3 million, Reuters reported. Talarico's campaign says he has no control over super PAC donations and wants to ban super PACs.

Fact-checkers have flagged ads from both sides. PolitiFact rated false a Texas PAC claim that Talarico supports taxpayer-funded sex-change surgeries for minors. Talarico opposed Texas' 2023 ban on gender-transition care for minors but says he opposes surgery for children, Reuters reported. FactCheck.org said an AI-generated Paxton campaign ad about Talarico's religious views lacked context.

Paxton's legal record

Talarico's corruption attacks focus on Paxton's legal history. Paxton has never been convicted of a crime. In 2023, the Republican-led Texas House impeached him on accusations including bribery and abuse of office. The Texas Senate acquitted him on all 16 articles that went to trial that September, AP reported. Paxton called the impeachment a politically motivated sham.

A state securities fraud case filed against him in 2015 ended in March 2024 under a pretrial agreement. It required about $300,000 in restitution, along with community service and ethics training, with no guilty plea, according to AP and Reuters. Paxton has denied wrongdoing. The Justice Department declined to bring federal charges in a related investigation, AP reported in 2025. Paxton's campaign has said Talarico raises the allegations to distract voters.

What's next

Early voting ends Friday, Oct. 30. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Most Texas polls close at 7 p.m. Central time (8 p.m. ET). El Paso and Hudspeth counties, in far West Texas, use Mountain time, so their polls close at 7 p.m. Mountain time (9 p.m. ET). With a Libertarian on the ballot and the race this close, neither major candidate may get a majority. Texas has no runoff in general elections, so whoever gets the most votes wins.

For background on the Bush family members who have backed Talarico, see NewsCubby's earlier report on the race.

*Credits: reporting from the Federal Election Commission, Texas Secretary of State, Fox News, Emerson College Polling, Rasmussen Reports, InsiderAdvantage, The Cook Political Report, University of Houston, RealClearPolitics, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, The Texas Tribune, Reuters, AP, CBS News, KSAT, KGNS, The Washington Post, The Washington Times, the Washington Examiner, Newsweek, PolitiFact and FactCheck.org. Photo: James Talarico by Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0; Ken Paxton by Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. NewsCubby articles are produced with AI assistance and reviewed by humans.*

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