New Jersey Senate election: Booker and Murphy face voters Tuesday

Sen. Cory Booker heads into Election Day as a heavy favorite for a third full term, while Republican Justin Murphy closes a campaign that national Republicans have largely left to New Jersey's state party. Voters choose New Jersey's U.S. senator on Tuesday, November 3.

There has been almost no public polling in the race. The only independent survey to test the matchup, a September StimSight Research poll for Insider NJ, covered a single congressional district, not the whole state. Election forecasters rate the seat safe Democratic, and New Jersey has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972.

What do the polls show?

No statewide public poll of the Booker-Murphy race has been released this fall. The StimSight survey of 498 likely voters in the 7th Congressional District, a competitive seat held by Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr., found Booker ahead 49% to 43%, with 6% undecided. It was conducted Sept. 8-12 and has a margin of error of 4.7 points.

A six-point Booker lead in a Republican-held swing district is one reason forecasters see little danger for him statewide. The same poll found 73% of district voters had no opinion of Murphy, a sign of how little name recognition he built against a sitting senator.

The same poll found Booker's own image underwater in the district, at 41% favorable and 53% unfavorable, while Trump stood at 41% to 56% and Gov. Mikie Sherrill at 49% to 47%. Nearly seven in 10 district voters, 69%, said the country was on the wrong track.

New Jersey polling also carries a recent warning label. Several surveys showed last year's governor's race as close, but Sherrill beat Republican Jack Ciattarelli by about 14 points, the widest Democratic margin for governor since 2001. The New Jersey Globe has cautioned that nearly every pollster missed the outcomes of the state's three most recent statewide general elections.

What does the early vote show?

Democrats built a large lead in advance voting. Through Friday, at least 1,023,635 New Jerseyans had voted early in person or by mail, including 594,076 Democrats, 241,031 Republicans and 188,528 unaffiliated and third-party voters, according to a New Jersey Globe analysis of data compiled by Umichvoter. That is a Democratic edge of 353,045 ballots.

In-person Republican turnout on Friday ran 26.5% below the same day last year, while Democratic turnout rose 3.1%. On Saturday, Democrats' share of in-person voters ran 22.5 points ahead of Republicans', compared with a 14.8-point gap on the same day in 2025 and 8.9 points in 2024. The figures reflect party registration, not votes for a candidate, and Republicans have traditionally relied more on Election Day voting.

How are the candidates closing?

Booker spent the final weekend on turnout, headlining a Sunday get-out-the-vote rally with Passaic County Democrats. He has represented New Jersey in the Senate since 2013 and campaigns on health care costs, economic opportunity, criminal-justice reform and civil rights.

Murphy, a former Tabernacle deputy mayor focused on energy and natural-resources law, has toured all 21 counties. At an Oct. 23 town hall in Roseland, he told the New Jersey Globe that he had heard nothing from the White House or the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "I think a lot at the national level doesn't feel that the Senate race and most of the House races in New Jersey are competitive," he said. He has asked President Donald Trump to hold a rally in the state; none has been announced.

Murphy wants to replace the federal tax code with a flat income tax, eliminate the Senate filibuster and pass the SAVE Act's new voter-registration requirements. He has also proposed turning vacant urban brownfields into solar sites to lure manufacturers. He drew national attention at the New Jersey Globe/Rider University debate when he urged Trump to "put your cowboy hat on" in Iran.

How did we get here?

Booker, a former Newark mayor, won his Senate seat in a 2013 special election and was reelected in 2014 and 2020. He ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020 and, in 2025, delivered the longest speech in Senate history, 25 hours and five minutes, in protest of the Trump administration. He ran unopposed in the June 2 Democratic primary.

Murphy won a three-way Republican primary with 33.3% of the vote, defeating state trooper Richard Tabor and journalist Alex Zdan.

What's at stake?

Booker's seat is not among the handful that will decide Senate control, but his margin will be read as a measure of Democratic strength in a state that swung toward Republicans in 2024. Republicans hope a strong Murphy showing helps House candidates in districts like the 7th, where Kean faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett.

Which House races should you watch?

The 7th District, covering parts of central and northwestern New Jersey, is the state's marquee House race. Trump carried it by one point in 2024, and Sherrill won it by two points last year. The September StimSight poll found Bennett ahead 47% to 42%, within the margin of error, with Kean's job approval at 37% to 60%. Kean led on immigration, crime, taxes and electricity costs, while Bennett led on health care, reproductive rights, Social Security and opposition to Trump.

Early voting has favored Democrats in the district. Through Saturday, registered Democrats had cast 67,135 advance ballots, already more than their entire 2025 advance total, compared with 38,251 Republicans, a gap of 28,884 ballots, according to the New Jersey Globe.

In South Jersey's 2nd District, which Trump carried by more than 12 points, Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew faces Democrat Zach Mullock. Democrats there had cast 49,061 advance ballots to Republicans' 35,199 through Saturday.

What if you still have a mail ballot?

Voters who have not returned a mail-in ballot have three options, according to the state Division of Elections. They can mail it, as long as it is postmarked by 8 p.m. on Election Day and reaches the county Board of Elections within six days; place it in one of the county's secure drop boxes by 8 p.m. Tuesday; or deliver it to the county Board of Elections office by 8 p.m. The state recommends asking a post office clerk to hand-stamp the postmark when mailing close to the deadline.

Because valid mail ballots can arrive up to six days after Election Day, close House races may not be decided on election night.

What to watch Tuesday night

Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. Watch Booker's margin in suburban counties such as Morris, Somerset and Bergen, and how closely the Senate vote tracks the House races in the 7th and 2nd districts. A Booker margin near Sherrill's 14 points would signal that last year's Democratic rebound held; a much narrower one would point to the 2024 shift toward Republicans persisting.

What's next

New Jersey votes Tuesday from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. Check your polling place with your county election office. NewsCubby's Senate election-eve guide covers the races that could decide control of the chamber. Our previews of the New York governor's race and Connecticut governor's race cover the neighboring states, and our look at voter priorities explains what is driving the midterms. For the latest polls across the country, visit PollCubby.

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*ARCHIVE PHOTO: The New Jersey State House in Trenton in 2019. Photo: Ken Lund / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 2.0.*

*NewsCubby articles are produced with AI assistance and reviewed by humans.*