South Carolina Senate: Darline Graham trails Annie Andrews in count

In a state where Republicans have won every U.S. Senate race this century, the most surprising number on election night belongs to a Graham, and it is not the one South Carolina voters knew for three decades.

As of 9:52 p.m. Eastern, with about 86% of the expected vote counted, Democrat Annie Andrews led Republican Sen. Darline Graham by about 4 percentage points in South Carolina’s U.S. Senate race. The Associated Press has not called the race, and the lead has moved during the night. Andrews was ahead by about 5 points when roughly 38% of the expected vote had been counted, widened that edge to more than 6 points in the middle of the count, and then saw it narrow again as later returns came in. More votes remain to be counted, and the result could still change.

Even so, the fact that this race is competitive at all is the story. Here is how a seat that looked safe for Republicans six months ago became one of the most closely watched contests in the country, and what it would mean if the lead holds.

A senator who never planned to run

Six months ago, AP noted, the race was expected to be another straightforward campaign for Lindsey Graham, the four-term senator and one of the best-known Republicans in Washington. That changed on July 11, when Lindsey Graham died suddenly while seeking a fifth term.

Gov. Henry McMaster, a Republican, appointed Graham’s younger sister, Darline Graham, to finish the remaining months of his term. AP reported that the appointment was widely hailed, given the siblings’ close relationship. Lindsey Graham helped raise his sister after their parents died when both were young.

Darline Graham had never held office. By her own admission, according to AP, she is a reluctant candidate. Her decision to seek a full six-year term surprised many in the state, and it put her into a snap special primary, organized only about a month after her brother’s death, that drew some of the biggest names in South Carolina politics.

Trump picked a side

President Donald Trump wanted Darline Graham in the Senate, and he backed her quickly and forcefully. He called her appointment “a fabulous tribute,” urged her to run and endorsed her before she had formally entered the race, AP reported. He campaigned for her in Myrtle Beach before the runoff, telling the crowd, “I want it to happen. Good luck, Darline.”

The president’s allies spent money to help her too. MAGA Inc., the super PAC that supports Trump and aligned Republicans, spent nearly $830,000 on voter calls and text messages for Graham on the eve of the runoff, according to AP.

On Aug. 25, Graham beat U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman, one of the most conservative members of the House, in the Republican runoff. Norman had argued that his experience in Washington made him the stronger choice. After his loss, he criticized Graham for taking outside PAC money and questioned Trump’s involvement. “I never understood why he got in this race,” Norman said. “It is what it is and we accept it.”

Trump stayed involved through the fall. AP reported that he returned to the state twice in the final weeks of the general election campaign.

The debate answer that would not go away

The moment that followed Graham through the campaign came in her only runoff debate with Norman. Asked whether the United States has a national security interest in Taiwan and the South China Sea, a position held by both Democratic and Republican administrations, she struggled to answer. Then she said, “National security is not my thing,” and added, “I’m not that informed on national security.”

That stood out because foreign policy was her brother’s signature issue. Graham instead pointed to his experience and said she wanted to focus on domestic issues like affordability. Norman said afterward that her answer showed she was not qualified for the job. Some Republican voters agreed. A Rock Hill voter told AP that Graham’s experience “wasn’t really cutting it for me,” and that her brother’s service did not give her “an easy pass in.”

Graham’s supporters saw it differently. One early voter at a Trump rally told AP that the president’s backing was enough: “Trump wants her, he’s doing a great job and I believe we should give him what he wants.” Graham has stressed throughout the campaign that she intends to support the president’s agenda.

Who is Annie Andrews?

Andrews, a pediatrician, had been campaigning for more than a year and had already won the Democratic primary outright when Lindsey Graham died. That forced her to rebuild a general election plan that had been built around defeating him.

She has never held office or run statewide. In 2022, she ran for the U.S. House and lost to Republican Rep. Nancy Mace. Since then, she has stayed visible in state politics.

Andrews got an unusual lift from South Carolina’s new role at the front of the Democrats’ 2028 presidential calendar. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly both visited the state, raising her profile, AP reported. In the final weeks, though, she mostly ran on her own, rarely appearing with prominent Democrats and focusing on the economy. She argued that Graham would be part of the same Washington system as her brother, one she said enriches itself and cares little about people at home.

She also reached for Republican-leaning voters. Former Republican Gov. David Beasley endorsed her, as did former Democratic Gov. Jim Hodges, WMBF News reported.

The coattails fight

Andrews and Graham met for one general election debate in October. They clashed over the economy, the war with Iran and artificial intelligence, AP reported, but they spent much of the hour arguing over which of them was less qualified.

Andrews accused Graham of riding her brother’s political coattails. Graham answered that she had legally kept her maiden name to stay connected to her parents, both of whom died when she was young. “Thank you for bringing up a horrible, tragic memory for me,” Graham said.

That exchange captured the campaign. Graham’s case rested on continuity, loyalty to Trump and the support of a state Republican establishment that had rallied behind her. Andrews’ case rested on the argument that South Carolina voters should not hand a Senate seat to someone with no experience because of her last name.

Why Trump’s backing cut both ways

Trump’s endorsement helped Graham win the nomination. In the general election, AP reported, it may have hurt her with two groups at once. Independent voters unhappy with Trump’s second term were put off by it. On the right, some Norman supporters believed the president had interfered in a decision that South Carolina voters should have made on their own. AP reported that both groups were uneasy about Graham’s inexperience and about turning the seat into a Graham family dynasty.

Republicans still expressed confidence. As the race tightened, the main super PAC aligned with Senate Republicans sent reinforcements to South Carolina, according to AP, even as Republicans said they expected to keep the seat. A New York Times/Siena poll in October suggested a close race.

Why history says be careful

Democrats have been here before. In 2020, polls also suggested a close race between Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison. The two campaigns and outside groups spent hundreds of millions of dollars in what became the most expensive election in South Carolina history. Graham won by 10 percentage points.

The last Democrat elected to the Senate from South Carolina was Fritz Hollings, who won his final term in 1998. Since then, Republicans have held both Senate seats. Only one Democrat, Rep. Jim Clyburn, represents the state in the U.S. House. Republicans also benefit from straight-ticket voting, which lets voters choose every GOP candidate on the ballot at once. The race for governor, AP noted, has not looked nearly as close.

That is why the count matters more than early impressions. Andrews’ lead has already narrowed from its peak, and the remaining votes may not look like the ones already counted.

Why this race matters beyond South Carolina

The Senate majority is narrow, and both parties built their maps around a few true battlegrounds. South Carolina was not supposed to be one of them. A Democratic win here would force Republicans to make up the seat somewhere else and would change the math for control of the chamber.

Whoever wins will also make history. South Carolina has never elected a woman to the U.S. Senate, so either Graham or Andrews will be the first, AP noted.

For voters, the race is also a test of a question that came up all year: how much does a famous name and a president’s endorsement count against a lack of experience? Graham’s path to the nomination showed that Trump’s backing still carries enormous weight in Republican primaries. Tonight’s count is testing whether that weight carries over to a statewide general election, even in one of the most reliably Republican states in the country.

What to watch next

The key number is the gap between the candidates as the last portion of the expected vote comes in. If Andrews’ lead keeps shrinking, the race could tighten sharply. If it holds near 4 points, Republicans will have a hard time catching up. NewsCubby will report the result when the AP calls the race.

Libertarian Kasie Whitener and Constitution Party candidate Mark Hackett are also on the ballot. Together they had about 2% of the vote counted so far.